Someone Started Hyping TI TPS92692-Q1 Again?!
Recently ESCHIPS heard that some people started to stock up on TI (Texas Instruments) model TPS92692-Q1 power management chip, which is mainly used in car headlights. They have a lot of stock.
That's right, it was in March this year that during the Shenzhen epidemic, someone lost a tray of chips in Huaqiangbei. Then an online reward of $140,000 was offered for the car-gauge chip he was looking for. The original price of this material was only $0.86, but the spot price in the market surged to $143 in March this year, and the current price is around $7.88. The highest price was more than 100 times higher than the normal price. In fact, not only TPS92692, but other similar products such as TPS92662-Q1 and TPS92630-Q1 have the same overall price trend. In particular, TPS92662 has been setting new records since the second half of last year, rising to nearly $430 in March this year.
But the problem follows. At present, the price of both TPS92692 and TPS92662 is at a low level in the past year, and there is no upward trend, so why do people still choose to stock up?ESCHIPS guess there might be a few reasons:
1. Optimistic about the potential of TPS92692
Although there are superimposed issues such as hype, epidemic, and supply bottlenecks, TPS92692 has increased by a maximum of 165 times, and the current price is still higher than the normal price. In addition, LED lights are fully replacing the application of halogen lamps in automobiles. As an important part of automobile lights, LED driver chips will also be used in more and more models, so this material has a certain growth potential.
2. Overseas demand continues
The research report of Guosen Securities has sample data for such a survey: the number of standard LEDs for German car lights accounts for as high as 90%, the standard LED for American cars accounts for 80%, the standard LED for Japanese accounts for 41%, and the standard for China LED accounted for 22%.
If we exclude the extremely high penetration rate of LEDs in new energy vehicles, we can find that in traditional fuel vehicles, the demand for LEDs overseas is obviously higher than that of China. 1 Or car companies will not choose to easily replace a chip, so in the long run, even if Chinese manufacturers complete the replacement, overseas demand for LED driver chips may become a major reason for stockpiling.
3. Matching product market changes
After the TPS92692 plummeted, the market stabilized, and the price was the same as last May. In the ADB system, the TPS92662, which is used as a collocation, has undergone many changes in the past two weeks. The price at the end of August was $40, and then rose to 50% in early September, and the price recently dropped to about $18.6. From the changes of TPS92662, it can be seen that the entire LED driver chip market has not plummeted all the way, and sometimes has a slight rise. By analogy, TPS92692 may also experience similar market changes.
At present, both TPS92662 and TPS92692 original factory delivery time is about 55 weeks, if there are channels, it is about 12 weeks. It seems that the supply of these two chips has not recovered as before. If there is a sudden increase in demand in the future, there may be a shortage of stock. At that time, the spot market price will usher in a wave of rises, and those who previously hoarded goods at low prices can make another profit.
ESCHIPS checked the market information of multiple chip distribution platforms and found that TPS92692 is still available in trade channels, and the quantity is quite large. Combined with the relatively stable price, the market for this chip in a short period of time does not seem to be so optimistic. .
From a long-term perspective, in the context of the overall chip market downturn, weak consumption, and inflation, it remains to be seen whether TI, an Internet celebrity chip, can become popular again. Under the combination of multiple factors of supply and demand, is it really "buying the bottom" or "filling the hole"? What do you think?