The changing PCB industry
Today, some mainstream technology trends are driving the development of the PCB industry. We asked Chris Nuttall, Chief operating Officer of NCAB Group, what he thinks about these developments and their possible impact on the PCB industry.
How are new technologies driving the current PCB industry?
"Rather than focusing on how new technologies are driving the current PCB industry, people should pay more attention to what key technology trends are driving the development of the electronics industry and related applications themselves." First, we have entered the fifth generation of mobile communications, which is the hot topic of today - 5G. The development of some technologies depends to a certain extent on the development of 5G technology.
"Rather than focusing on how new technologies are driving the current PCB industry, people should focus on what key technology trends are driving the electronics industry and related applications themselves."
Chris Nuttall
Chief Operating Officer, NCAB Group
These trends can be broken down into "human-centered" and "intelligent domains," where the former relates to the impact of technology on humans themselves, and the latter refers primarily to technological trends that affect the living or working environment. We've all heard of the Internet of Things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI), and these technologies, combined with the faster data speeds offered by 5G, could take connectivity and communication between devices and things to a whole new level. This will promote the development of smart products, including smart manufacturing or high automation, advanced robotics, smart cities, smart security systems, and more. With the above trend, people can transfer, transfer, manage and process large amounts of data in a short time, reducing latency, which is the main feature of edge computing.
Finally, there is a trend towards human augmentation, such as the replacement of certain human functions by artificial body parts. While I can't say definitively how much technology is becoming a reality right now, our lives will definitely change dramatically over the next five years.
In the automotive industry, for example, some of these trends form the basis for the development of autonomous vehicles; In the pharmaceutical industry, one will find that these trends are driving the realization of certain visions, such as instant data processing and real-time communication between experts around the world. A similar trend is evident in military applications, driving certain markets.
As we talked about in an earlier InFocus, 5G applications are growing in scale. In China alone, the size of 5G-related devices in the user base by 2025 is expected to reach 500 million mobile phones or other mobile devices. User growth in Europe and the US is slightly slower than in Asia, but there is no doubt that 5G will be used at scale." How do these trends affect PCB design and manufacturing?
"These changing trends will have an ongoing impact on the PCB industry. The number of PCB layers becomes higher; To support increasingly dense functions, smaller linewidth spacing and apertures are required. In the past, multi-layer PCBS with a 1-level HDI structure were often regarded as difficult products, and now 10-layer HDI structures are also common. We see that solutions with a line-width pitch of 30 microns can now be implemented on the circuit board. Going from 100 microns to 75 microns and then down to 60 microns took a long time and broke through a lot of technical difficulties, and NCAB currently only has a few partner plants that can support this solution. Some of our plants are commissioning new equipment, gradually establishing process controls and gaining experience to enable the production of higher density products. Outside of our factory, the really cutting-edge manufacturers are already producing PCBS below 30 microns.
"We see that solutions with line-width spacing of 30 microns can already be implemented on the circuit board."
Chris Nuttall
Chief Operating Officer, NCAB Group
"With the increasing popularity and complexity of components such as semiconductors, we are also seeing an increasing demand for IC substrates that carry connectivity functions, such as smaller, high-density PCBS that can be mounted between components and boards. These substrates are highly dense, provide power and signal distribution, and provide a degree of heat dissipation. This technique can achieve very small line width spacing and very small aperture size. Today, IC substrates are becoming increasingly common as high-end circuit boards." In terms of the latest technology, what do you think of the current situation of NCAB partner factories?
"In line with our strategy of working with factories, we maintain a strong enough relationship with factories so that they can share with us their technology direction and ideas for the next five years. By looking at the more technologically capable factories, we can see that they are already focusing on much more complex structures, some of which have shipped IC substrates, while others are approaching mass production with 30-micron line-width pitch solutions. This size is more than half the size of their current mass-produced products. In the future, the demand for products with higher density and complexity will continue to increase.
"With the development of technology, a variety of difficult products emerge in an endless stream, and people will increasingly need more and more complex PCB." This means that as the pace of technological change accelerates, today's advanced technology may become commonplace tomorrow. That's why our more technologically advanced partner factories are working hard to ensure they can support higher complexity and larger structures, such as AnyLayer, smaller spacing, and proficiency with different materials. This will lead to the need for new types of equipment and raw materials, and the need to upgrade production lines. For example, we will continue to see more use of direct imaging solutions rather than traditional dry-film graphics solutions." "We live in exciting times. Look at some of the major manufacturing equipment on the market today and you have to be amazed. Just a few years ago, these devices would have been considered cutting-edge and distant, but now they are with us. Moore's Law, where chip density doubles every two years, is absolutely a reality."
In addition to technical challenges, what are the challenges facing the PCB manufacturing industry in the future?
"A major challenge for factories is to accumulate their own design knowledge and manufacturing experience to keep up with the update of equipment, raw materials and new solutions. Factories are under increasing pressure to master this knowledge while ensuring that technological updates are balanced with their core business and that they derive good benefits from their current production processes. Research and development teams need to work faster. That's why NCAB's evaluation process includes closely monitoring the plant's development plans for the next two to five years."
"A major challenge for factories is to build up their own design knowledge and manufacturing experience to keep up with the update of equipment, raw materials and new solutions."
Chris Nuttall
Chief Operating Officer, NCAB Group
"The component industry is also following a similar trend - smaller sizes and thinner spacing. Therefore, PCB suppliers must be able to meet changing requirements. To meet customer needs, factories must invest in equipment, materials and knowledge. This affects everything from graphic transfer, imaging, solder mask, plating, pretreatment, surface treatment, and more. The right equipment, the right raw materials, the right process, the right knowledge, and the right combination of these factors can make the equipment run smoothly and ultimately obtain a reliable product.
NCAB's approach is clear that our goal is not to master the most advanced technology. We only approve the use of such technologies, but only if we confirm that the factory's processes regarding such technologies are stable and reliable, and can produce excellent end products that meet customer requirements. At the same time, we have to understand where the cutting edge of technology is and how far the factory is from the cutting edge of technology."
Through the acquisition of Bare Board Group, we have broadened our operations and acquired more PCB production resources. Currently, Taiwan accounts for 9% of our printed circuit board production needs, and while we are still in the run-in phase with the Taiwan plant, it is clear that the Taiwan plant has demonstrated certain levels of capability above what we had in our previous portfolio to provide NCAB's customers with additional solutions at the technology-driven and supply chain levels. In terms of geography, what are the implications of the above developments for the PCB industry?
"Now look back at the industry forecasts that were made before the COVID-19 pandemic. At that time, it was estimated that the global PCB market size would reach $67 billion this year, the data in 2019 was $64 billion, and by 2023, the figure would rise to $70-75 billion, while China's PCB market size would account for more than 50% of the global share (52%-53%). Although we are ushering in technological change, the global layout of the PCB market should not change much in the next 4-5 years. "
"In view of the current PCB market situation, we can see that the transfer time of new technologies from Asia, Europe and the United States to China is decreasing. Many large companies set up technology research and development centers or small factories in Europe or the United States, while building large-scale production plants in China, which is one of the main factors to accelerate technology transfer. I think we'll see technology and product development go hand in hand in the near future as time to market becomes key. "China's development is getting faster and faster, and the Chinese government is increasing its support for localization to help its industries reach the forefront of technology."
"Although costs are also rising, China still has a significant advantage over other manufacturing markets in Asia. Today's Chinese PCB industry has a clear advantage, because in China the industry has all the necessary conditions, including knowledge, experience, infrastructure, raw materials, equipment, etc., which helps China to widen the gap with other low-cost countries. The obvious advantages of the industrial chain accelerate the transfer of PCB technology, and as the factory becomes more familiar with the cutting-edge technology, the factory can provide more technical solutions, expand revenue, and allocate funds for subsequent investment and technology development, in order to maintain a continuous virtuous cycle. In contrast, other countries trying to catch up with China in this industry will face thorny issues such as technology gap and cost."
"Today's Chinese PCB industry has a clear advantage because in China the industry has all the necessary conditions, including knowledge, experience, infrastructure, raw materials, equipment and so on."
Chris Nuttall
Chief Operating Officer, NCAB Group
"Of course, the circuit board industry ecology in other countries also has a certain space for development. Factories in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan not only support the local market well, but also gain a competitive advantage with high specialization, high technical standards and shorter lead times. At the same time, countries such as India, Thailand and Malaysia are able to manufacture PCBS with low technical requirements at low cost."
"Looking back at China's development history, we will find that the transition from low-end technology to high-end technology can be completed relatively quickly." Such a trajectory is likely to occur in other countries as well, so one cannot ignore their dynamics or underestimate their potential for technological and competitive growth. But as I mentioned earlier, the PCB industry is growing rapidly, and as PCB complexity and customer demand continue to rise, the gap will grow. It is difficult for countries with underdeveloped manufacturing industries to achieve major technological changes quickly within their industries. So I think the technology gap will continue to widen for some time to come." Do you think the COVID-19 pandemic will have a long-term impact on PCB production?
"I can't say for sure that the epidemic has had a huge impact on PCB technology - the epidemic may have affected local technical support, but it certainly hasn't stalled the work, or even accelerated the pace of technology to some extent, because the time to market of products is gradually becoming critical." From the factory side, operations are slowing in certain regions, industries and customer factories, but in China, the 5G-related demand burst is neutralizing these effects."
"Globally, we are seeing customers trying to integrate their supply chains. NCAB's partner plants have not experienced any major setbacks due to the temporary shutdowns in China, Europe and the United States, and some have even taken the opportunity to do more business with existing customers. "But other smaller factories that make low-end or cheap printed circuit boards will struggle as lead times start to shrink and they will need to keep their factories open while being forced to scale back capacity."
"The outbreak is having an impact on European factories as they have to deal with the constraints and challenges posed by the COVID-19 containment measures.
Regardless of the region of the world, we can basically say that the outbreak is best managed by financially sound and efficiently operated factories before the outbreak. After the epidemic is over, they will become stronger."
